There was a time when Nassim Taleb media appearances were a daily thing. Then he decided to take a sabbatical from the public’s eye, and literally fell off the face of the planet. And while over the past year or so, he has gradually resurfaced, his extended discussions on various topics are still almost as rare as a double digit move in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Tonight he broke his vow of silence, and joined Bloomberg TV’s in discussing the “Occupy Wall Street” protest, which he expects to devolve into class warfare, as well as his view of the global banking system. And an interesting tangential discussion to develop is his observation of applying the principles of the “Hammurabi’s Code” to the banking system.

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Original source at: zero hedge - on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero | http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nassim-taleb-occupywallstreet-and-his-updated-views-global-banking-system

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Hotter-than-expected inflation readings out of the U.K. and U.S. remind us that purchases are becoming increasingly tough on our wallets, especially as unemployment rates remain stubbornly high.

The misery index, which is the sum of the unemployment rate and the CPI inflation rate, is sitting at multi-year highs.

According to Markit Economics, the U.K.’s misery index is at a 19-year high.  The U.S. misery index is at a 28-year high.  Check out this chart for some historical context.

UKUSMiseryIndex

But there are plenty of countries that are way more miserable.  For more, here are The 15 Most Miserable Places In The World.

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Original source at: Money Game | http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/_cJFEzfXQ8c/us-misery-index-is-at-a-28-year-high-2011-10

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Since last update in March 2011, quite a lot has happened. The global news empire is in trouble, Euro zone problems escalated, US Debt ceiling issues are still on the table and generally the earnings have surprised on the upside. With all of these grey swans and uncertainty, the markets have responded quite well to the price levels charted earlier in March 2011 issue. Regardless of how the news on TV may appear to be, market sentiment is not at extremes, as can be seen via AAII sentiment readings. The sentiment index is not at bullish / bearish extremes (between 25% and 45%). Therefore no caution on extremity of sentiments.


Now, let’s delve into the charts…

 

DOW


It is still in the long-term bullish channel; therefore we were looking only to buy. Initially, we were looking for buying interest around 12500 resistance. In our March 2011 newsletter we said “Next resistance is at 12500, after which any pullback should be bought with confirmation of bullish candles. Aggressive traders may look for counter trend short opportunities around that level.”

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A number of Black Swan events have been ignored / killed by the markets (for the time being). Apart from Nikkei, there was no signficant follow through of selling in other markets, and dips have been bought hand over fists. Also, there have been news of significant buying of Japanese equities by western investments. Perhaps, this was among the the main reason for strong buying of Yen on 16 March 2011, rather than pure speculation or repatriation (Yen surge was later fought by G7 intervention).

Several trades were triggered based on previous analysis of January newsletter, details can be found below.

 

DOW


We had both Long and Short levels charted out, but none of them were set up. Daily chart shows that the price broke below 50SMA on 10 March 2011, but since then it has reversed and is now above both 50SMA and 20SMA. It is still within long-term bullish channel. Weekly chart showed a lot cleaner price action, after bouncing off 200SMA on weekly chart (as noticed in January newsletter), it created a doji type of candle (commonly called pin bar) and then continued the uptrend. Looking back at it, although I had weekly 20SMA as buying level, but I did not update my levels based on the movement of 20SMA. Next resistance is at 12500, after which any pullback should be bought with confirmation of bullish candles. Aggressive traders may look for counter trend short opportunities around that level.

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