In a word – “Yes”

 

Source: Google Trends

 

It appears the “herd” was right last time.

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Original source at: zero hedge - on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero | http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-30/bear-market-back-here-googles-answer



This could be an example of seeing two lines that moving similarly, and thinking there’s a connection, or maybe there’s some real insight here…

Either way, in a note today, Cit’s Tobias Levkovitch looks at the M/O ratio, which is the ratio of the middle-aged (40-49 year old) cohort vs. the old-age (60-69) cohort,a nd notes an interesting similarity between that ratio and S&P PE ratios.

Not surprisingly (we supposed) as the number of high earnings/high consuming middle-agers rises and falls in relation to old agers, stock market valuations rise and fall.

And if you believe the inexorable move in the red line (down), then you’d surmise that PEs are going lower as well.

demographics

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Original source at: Money Game | http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/20Omo8Tq3pQ/chart-of-the-day-pe-ratio-and-mo-ratio-2011-9

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Every time we see another week of declines, our eyes are drawn back to this great chart from Doug Short on the shape of monster bear markets.

Not only are both Japan and 1929 interesting shape-wise, there are real historical analogies between them, what with the establishment of stimulus, and then the cessation of it “prematurely” some would say.

chart

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Original source at: Money Game | http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/euXuGLMEd1w/mega-bears-update-june-26-2011-6

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