The FBI raid made Trump into a ‘martyr’ and stronger than ever, icing out potential 2024 rivals like Gov. Ron DeSantis, GOP insiders say

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump are the most talked-about Republicans in the US.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump are the most talked-about Republicans in the US.

  • The FBI raided Trump's Mar-a-Lago last week in search of classified documents.
  • Fundraising soared and an outpouring of support came from GOP politicians. 
  • It's a reminder of Trump's hold on the party and why it'd be hard for a Republican to challenge him in 2024.

Heading into August, several news outlets and Republican insiders predicted the revelations from the House select committee's January 6 hearings had been damning enough to do real damage to the former president's 2024 prospects. 

Yet, as has been the case so many times before with Trump, the narrative took a sharp turn after the FBI searched the former president's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. 

The change in tone was so intense that even political insiders who support other candidates say it'll be difficult for any Republicans to challenge Trump for the 2024 nomination if he should choose to run again. So, in other words, the FBI raid is shaping up to be bad news if your last name is DeSantis, Pence, Cruz, Haley, or Cotton.

"It makes him pretty much unbeatable in a primary," said a Republican strategist who worked on an opposing 2016 primary presidential campaign. "Basically, what the federal government has done, the FBI, the Biden administration, is they've made him into a martyr. It's going to be really difficult to see a scenario in which he runs in and loses in a primary because of that."

Indeed, Trump's political action committee, Save America, saw a massive bump in donations, the Washington Post reported. Even potential Republican 2024 rivals have flocked to support him

"If I was a campaign finance lawyer for Donald Trump, I might well report to the Federal Elections Commission this raid as an in-kind contribution to the Trump political campaign, because it is so enormously helpful to Trump,"  Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas said on his "Verdict with Ted Cruz" podcast that aired August 13. Cruz is a 2016 Trump primary rival who recently said he would "wait and see" if the ex-president ran again before announcing his own 2024 plans.  

Republican insiders also say that Trump in recent weeks has demonstrated his grip on the party through ousting more establishment candidates as well as his Republican political enemies, most notably Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the top Republican on the January 6 committee. 

The combination of the 2022 primary results along with the raid put a pause on plans that GOP strategist John Thomas had to start a political action committee to help support a 2024 presidential run for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Thomas told Insider. 

The raid "turned President Trump into a victim, causing people who liked him but might have softened on him to now run to his support or run to his defense," Thomas said, calling it a "watershed" event for the former president. 

Former Vice President Mike Pence.
Former Vice President Mike Pence.

A large number of Republicans are eyeing a bid

While waiting on a formal announcement from Trump, a slew of both pro- and anti-Trump Republicans appear to still be testing the waters.

Former Vice President Mike Pence and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan have made recent visits to the Iowa State Fair, a common stomping ground for White House aspirants. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and DeSantis are out stumping for candidates for the November midterms.

Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas made numerous visits to early voting states New Hampshire and Iowa. After losing her primary to a Trump-supported opponent, Cheney said she was "thinking about" mounting a 2024 White House run. 

Some Republicans hope that there might be a lane for them to get to the White House, particularly for someone who might be able to appeal to Trump's base yet without his political and legal baggage. 

"They're tired of the drama all the time," said a GOP operative who works for a potential 2024 candidate. 

Among the baggage is that the Justice Department is investigating whether Trump violated various laws including the Espionage Act in how he handled national security documents. Trump also faces numerous other federal and state investigations including his conduct during the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. 

Trump fatigue was beginning to show up in focus groups after the January 6 hearings, said Gunner Ramer, political director for the anti-Trump Republican Accountability Project.

Before the hearings, Republican focus group participants were enthusiastic about another Trump White House bid, Ramer said. After the hearings, only one or two Republicans said they wanted Trump to run again. 

"As these groups become concerned about electability and finding a Republican to beat in 2024 they were starting to look around for other candidates that don't have the baggage Trump has," Ramer said.

DeSantis was the alternative they raised most often, he added. 

Ramer said it was too soon to tell whether the raid might have turned things around for Trump, but said the participants tend to have "a deep distrust of our institutions, including the FBI."

The former president's legal liabilities aren't likely to open up any new path for a rival who wants to win the nomination by saying he's a crook, said a longtime GOP operative with ties to Trump told Insider.

"My gut says no, because every time people try to do that he comes back even stronger," the person said. 

Republicans agree that the higher the number of people who run, the better it is for Trump. The ex-president could splinter the vote without receiving majorities, given that his base is larger than the other candidates. 

And anti-Trump Republicans are unlikely to be able to carve out a path for themselves in a crowded field. A longtime GOP operative close to Trump said Hogan, who has been critical of Trump, was "trying to carve a path through the Amazon with a butter knife."

"If you go out there too quickly to try to create that differentiation then you create much more likelihood that'll backfire on you," said the source. "This has been done before many times and no one has successfully pulled it off."

Florida governor Ron DeSantis
Florida governor Ron DeSantis released a survey asking school board members and candidates to share their view on controversial education policies.

Trump is 'willing to say almost anything'

While DeSantis is likely to face pressure to enter the race even against Trump, doing so can still be perilous to a politician's future given the former president's blistering debate delivery. 

"If you put him on a stage next to Ron DeSantis I don't think it goes well for Ron DeSantis," said Michael Binder, director of the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab. "If you put Trump on a stage next to anyone, he's extremely charismatic, he's quick witted, and he's willing to say almost anything — and that's difficult to combat. You saw a lot of skilled politicians just wilt against what is Donald Trump on a stage." 

Thomas said he would not advise DeSantis to enter the race against Trump, saying it would sour him to Trump's base because it would automatically place him in the category of being "anti-Trump" because he'd have to argue why he was a better alternative.

"Trump can end careers," Thomas said. 

DeSantis' gubernatorial campaign has repeatedly stressed he's focused on his reelection in November, and hasn't dished about what his plans will be afterward. Haley pledged in April 2021 that she would not run for president in 2024 if Trump mounts another White House campaign. But this July she told reporters in Iowa she'd run "if there's a place for me."

Whether or not Trump runs, he's expected to still loom large in the presidential race. For that reason, whatever happens with Trump might have little effect on any Republicans' decisions to run. 

"Ultimately you have to win a good portion of the Make America Great Again bloc," the longtime GOP operative with ties to Trump said. "Whether that is against Donald Trump or not, because he's not in the race, you've got to win them over with his policies, with his focus, whether it's his name or not."

Nicole Gaudiano contributed to this report. 

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Original source at: Business Insider | https://www.businessinsider.com/mar-a-lago-fbi-raid-could-freeze-out-trumps-gop-challengers-like-desantis-2022-8


Saudi Arabia is surging ahead of the US and Europe’s growth forecasts for the rest of 2022.

TGIF readers. I'm Phil Rosen, writing to you from Manhattan. 

For months, friends of mine outside the city have bemoaned sticker shock at gas stations ($5 pump prices make me appreciate the subway a whole lot more). 

Yet, for all their gas dollars lost to suburban American life, little of that has gone toward the country's economic growth. 

Today, I'm breaking down how stratospheric oil prices have planted Saudi Arabia squarely ahead of the US in a key economic metric for 2022. 

One last lap before the weekend, team! 


If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.


Saudi Arabia riyal
A man holds a 50 riyal ($13.3) note, which shows the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem old city and Saudi's King Abdullah, in Riyadh.

1. Saudi Arabia is on track for its fastest rate of economic expansion in nearly a decade. High oil prices will likely help the Kingdom to finish 2022 as one of the world's fastest growing economies, according to the International Monetary Fund.

In a new report, the IMF forecasted Saudi Arabia's GDP to increase by 7.6% this year, just two years after it shrank by 3.4% during the pandemic. 

"Saudi Arabia is likely to be one of the world's fastest-growing economies this year as sweeping pro-business reforms and a sharp rise in oil prices and production power recovery from a pandemic-induced recession," the IMF said Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, there's little domestically to suggest the US can get anywhere near that level of economic productivity for the year. 

Recession talk abounds and the Fed continues to struggle against inflation. The IMF predicts US inflation will average 6.6% through 2022 and drag into next year. 

Wednesday's forecast pegged US GDP at 2.3% for the year — less than half of last year's growth and far below that of the oil-rich Saudis.

European countries are faring even worse. The deepening energy crisis in Europe is set to spark a series of steep economic contractions, according to an analyst from Energy Aspects.

On Thursday, benchmark prices for European natural gas continued to climb, and now sit roughly 10 times higher than usual for this time of year.

A severe heat wave, Russia's cuts to gas flows, and a period of drought for Germany's Rhine river have all contributed to a bleak outlook for the continent's economies.

And, all the while, Saudi Arabia is about to pen a huge growth milestone into its history books.


What do you think? Are the US and Europe headed for deep recessions? Email me at prosen@insider.com or tweet@philrosenn.


In other news:

US stock market traders
Friday's inflation print shocked investors.

2. US stock futures fall early Friday, but are still on track for a fifth weekly gain in a row. Meanwhile, China's yuan tumbles to a 3-month low as the dollar surges. Here are the latest market moves.

3. On the docket: Xiaomi, Standard Bank Group Limited, and Newcrest Ltd., all reporting

4. Implementing these personal investing strategies in your thirties can bring long-term financial success, according to the CIO of a $6 billion wealth management firm. Peter Lazaroff said these six ideas can help set up young investors for a successful retirement long before the end of their careers

5. Investors with "FOMO" will power the current stock market rally to further gains, Ned Davis research said in a note. Current indicators from the firm's internal crowd sentiment poll suggest traders are still feeling bearish in the short term— but that outlook shifts in the longer term. 

6. The stock market could surge another 12% through the end of the year, JPMorgan analysts said Thursday. Trend followers are on the verge of pouring $100 billion into funds, the bank said — and technicals are signaling a coming rally

7. China's gold imports from Switzerland have soared to a five-year high. The 80 tons of bullion that arrived in China in July stood at eight times the amount shipped during May. China seems to be turning the corner on a smattering of COVID-19 lockdowns that previously weighed on demand.

8. Housing market activity is signaling that the bear market won't end until next year. That's what the chief economist of $737 billion asset manager Macquarie told Insider. He broke down why a sharp decline in mortgage applications and home sales make a recession in 2023 dramatically more likely. 

9. Bed Bath & Beyond has gone bananas as retail traders are returning in droves. Pandemic favorites are storming back into market conversations amid the broader rebound. These are the top 13 meme stocks on Reddit right now. 

Mind medicine stock

10. Shares of Mind Medicine catapulted 78% yesterday after a report revealed an activist stake of the college student who made $110 million in the recent Bed Bath & Beyond rally. Get the full details here. 


Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.


Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn).

Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.

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Original source at: Business Insider | https://www.businessinsider.com/why-saudi-arabia-gdp-us-economy-europe-markets-energy-crisis-2022-8


Stagflation is engulfing the UK economy, showing what could lie in store for the US and Europe

UK railway strikes
UK railway workers have gone out on strike over pay, jobs and working conditions.

  • Talk about stagflation is growing in the US, but it's the UK economy that's likely to stall soon.
  • Britain already faces the highest inflation rate in the G7 — and it's predicted to climb even higher.
  • Soaring energy prices, rising interest rates, tax hikes, and Brexit are battering the UK economy.

Talk of "stagflation" — the dreaded combination of stagnant growth and rampant inflation — is growing louder in the US after the economy shrank for two quarters running

Sure, inflation is red-hot, and the economy is dangerously close to a recession. Yet many still expect the next two years to deliver relatively strong growth, and that's after a rapid rebound from the coronavirus crisis.

Over the pond in the UK, however, things are different. Economists say Britain is barreling towards a period of stagflation, with growth expected to slow to a crawl next year.

UK inflation rocketed to a new 40-year high of 9.4% in June as fuel prices surged, official data showed. That's higher than in any of the other G7 countries — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the US. It's likely to top double figures before the year is out.

 

Soaring prices, rising interest rates, tax hikes, and Brexit are all hitting the UK economy at once. The country's gross domestic product will grow just 0.7% next year, for the worst performance in the G7, private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg predict.

The Bank of England is even more pessimistic. It thinks GDP is likely to shrink slightly in 2023, and grow just 0.25% the following year.

Meanwhile, economists expect the US economy — which fared much better during COVID — to expand 1.3% in 2023. And they think eurozone GDP will increase by the same amount.

The UK's leaders are under pressure

For policymakers in the US, and the better-performing European economies, Britain contains a warning of what could be coming if things go wrong.

Leaders in the UK are under growing pressure over the bleak outlook. Rail workers, lawyers and mailmen are striking as the cost of living spirals higher. Consumer confidence has plunged.

In fiery TV debates this month, Boris Johnson's potential successors as UK prime minister inadvertently trashed the government's economic record.

"All your bills, every month, they're going up and up and up," said Rishi Sunak, who led the UK's economy ministry over the last three years. The other candidate, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, said the UK faces "the worst economic crisis in a generation."

Energy bills reach eye-watering levels

At the heart of the UK's woes is an inflation rate that is outstripping that in other rich countries, and is likely to keep rising this year.

The country's energy price cap, designed to ease the burden on utility bill payers, is now adding to the pain.

The cap jumped 54% in April, and is set to rise by a similar amount in October to reflect a surge in oil and gas prices driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"Energy prices go up and stay there for a more prolonged period of time, rather than come down with the market," Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, told Insider.

A sharp drop in the British pound has made things worse, Raja said. It's fallen around 11% this year against the dollar, as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have sucked money back into the US. The UK imports much of its food and energy, and a weaker pound is making those purchases even more expensive.

The workforce has shrunk

On top of a European-style energy shock, the UK is suffering from a problem more familiar to the US: a shortage of workers. More than 400,000 people have dropped out of the workforce since the start of the pandemic, economists estimate, with around half because of long-term illnesses.

Companies are putting up wages as they compete for a smaller pool of workers, adding to the pressure on prices, according to Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics.

 

"You've got these acute labor shortages, which have held activity back in some service sectors, stoking rises in pay growth and higher inflation," she told Insider.

Brexit has also cut the size of the UK workforce by making it harder for people to move to the country, Gregory said.

Brexit and tax rises aren't helping

Deutsche Bank's Raja said Brexit is also causing other problems.

"Firms are telling us [about] additional paperwork, logistic costs, and in some cases higher tariffs as a result of leaving the European single market," he said. "Those things have also driven up imported goods prices."

Tax rises, which came into force in April in an effort to cut the budget deficit, are also adding to the squeeze.

"As far as I know, we are the only advanced economy to have pushed through a tax rise this year in the midst of the cost of living crisis," Raja said.

It's the stuff of nightmares for the Bank of England, which is hiking interest rates hard and seems resigned to a sharp slowdown in growth. "Its path to achieving a soft landing is narrower than the Fed's," Gregory said.

But it's even worse for millions of Britons struggling to get by during the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation.

In real terms, wages are falling sharply. More and more people are turning to food banks, and discontent among workers is growing. Whoever succeeds Boris Johnson faces a daunting task.

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Original source at: Business Insider | https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-economy-stagflation-recession-energy-prices-brexit-taxes-us-europe-2022-7

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